Zack_Shields's Blog

I know it's only August but let us think about some cool thoughts and check out the Winter outlook. The Farmers' Almanac predicts a very cold Winter for most of the country. In fact the Almanac says, "Numb's the word!" This is a 192 year-old publication which claims an accuracy rate of 80 to 85 percent. They use a secret formula based on sunspots, the position of the planets, and the tidal action of the moon.

The Almanac says at least two-thirds of the country can expect colder than average temps. It also predicts above normal snowfall for the Great Lakes and Midwest and wetter than average weather across the South. After a very long and hot Summer this sounds pretty good...cold weather to kill the bugs and rain to get us out of the drought.

Before you get too excited the Almanac does not agree with National Weather Service. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center calls for warmer and drier than average weather over much of the country. Who will win the forecast shootout? Only time will tell. I am hoping the Farmers' Almanac is right but I have a feeling it will lose.

What kind of Winter do you want?

This week the hot and dry streak will finally come to an end. This Summer has been brutal with barely any rain and nearly 50 100 degree days (third most). So I think we deserve some rainy and cooler Summer days.

High pressure has been the dominating weather feature since late May. Now it has moved out allowing an upper level low to pay us a visit. All the ingredients are coming together for us to see a significant rain event. We have the fuel (tropical moisture), spark (stalled front), and engine (upper low) in place to give us rounds of rain. For the 1st time in months the 7 day forecast has no 100 degree days and plenty of good rain chances.

The last time we had over an inch of rain in Austin in one day was back on May 14th (1.04"). Since June 1st we have only received 1.40". For the year the total is just under 11 inches. We need 9 inches to catch up to normal levels. We won't get that much but we'll take any raindrops at this point especially when the area is under an exceptional drought.

Most of the models are indicating at least 1 to 3 inches of rain in the next 3 days. Another good thing about rain this time of year it will finally get us out of the heatwave. Today for the 1st time in 90 days the high will stay below 90 degrees. There is something to cheer about.
So dust off your umbrella and jump for joy we have rain on the way.

So far 5 named storms this hurricane season and it looks like it could get busier in the coming months. NOAA came out with an updated hurricane outlook and they say there is an 85% chance of an above normal season.

Here is the updated forecast...14-18 named storms (avg. 10), 7 to 10 hurricanes (avg. 6), and 3 to 6 major hurricanes (avg. 3).  This is why they are going with higher numbers...very warm sea surface temperatures, weak wind shear over the Atlantic, and favorable easterly wind flow coming off the coast of Africa.

Another indicator favoring an above-normal hurricane season is a very active July, the third most active since 1886.

2008 summary so far-
Tropical Storm Arthur formed late May and impacted Yucatan.
Hurricane Bertha became a major one and was the longest-lived July storm.
Tropical Storm Cristobal skirted the North Carolina coast.
Hurricane Dolly made landfall at South Padre.
Tropical Storm Edouard hit the Upper Texas coast this month.

We are watching two tropical waves way out in the Atlantic between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. There is a moderate chance for development. Make sure you check out the Tropical Tracker on the weather page for the very latest.

A rare total solar eclipse will happen on the 1st day of August. Here is the catch though. You have to take a very long road trip to see it. The eclipse which is the moon passing in front of the sun will begin in Arctic Canada and then sweep across Greenland. The last show will happen in Russia.  It will not be visible in the United States.

People are flocking to Russia to see this beautiful sight. They may be unlucky because clouds and rain are in the forecast. These events can last only a few seconds or up to 8 minutes.

The next total solar eclipse is expected on July 22, 2009. But once again it won't  be visible in the U.S. You will have to make a vacation trip to India and China to see it.

Check out the official eclipse website from NASA
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/eclipse.html

Can you guess what city has the title for the sweatiest spot in America? Old Spice used a computer model to determine amount of sweat an average person would produce walking around in cities during the Summer months last year.

If you guessed Phoenix you win. It may be "dry heat" out there but with an average high temperature of 95 degrees in June through August the average person pumps out 26.4 ounces of sweat. That is equivalent to more than two cans of soda. Las Vegas comes in second followed by Tallahassee. San Francisco is the nation's least sweaty city with an average temperature of 63.5 degrees. Austin comes in at 23. We would be higher if we did not have one of the coolest Summers last year thanks to all the rain. Here is the Top 10.

1. Phoenix
2. Las Vegas
3. Tallahassee
4. Tucson
5. Memphis
6. Miami
7. Houston
8. Tampa
9. Baton Rouge
10. Fort Myers

18. Dallas
20.Corpus Christi
21.El Paso (There is no way they are in front of Austin.)
22.Waco
23. Austin
28. San Antonio
In my opinion, I think Houston should be number 1.
What do you think?

We just started Summer but it feels like we are in the heart of it because of all the 100 degree days lately. Not only are we breaking daily records but also on record pace to be the hottest June on record.

We are at 19 100 degree days and counting. We have never experienced this many before July 1st. The old record was 18 set in 1925. That year we ended up with 69 100 degree days. By the way that is a record for most 100 degree days in one year. I hope this early heatwave is not a sign that we will be flirting with that record.

So far the average temperature this month if you consider the lows and highs is 87.6 degrees. The record is 86.7 degrees so it looks like this record will also fall making June 2008 the hottest ever for Austin.

You got to love Texas weather. Last year at this time we were dealing with flooding. In fact one year ago today much of Marble Falls was underwater with 19" of rain in 6 hours. A couple days later Lake Travis went up 30 plus feet. Now we are in an extreme drought and dealing with record heat. I guess Mother Nature likes to keep us on our toes.

Some relief could be possible late in the weekend as a weak front stalls out just to our north and may push more showers our way and keep temps in the lower 90s. That would be nice. Keep your fingers crossed and have a great weekend!